Results tagged ‘ Defensive range metrics ’
Mike Wilner is the Toronto Blue Jays radio play-by-play announcer for SN 590 THE FAN. Mike is also the commissioner of the THROW League which is a face to face local DYNASTY League Baseball Board version league established in 1987.
Q: DYNASTY League Baseball and its predecessor Pursue the Pennant are
celebrating their 30th anniversary this year. How did you originally find
out about Pursue the Pennant and what are your recollections of playing the
original Board game version?
Mike Wilner: I was introduced to tabletop baseball by my father, who created a very rudimentary version for me when I was very young. Basically it was a pair of six-sided dice with an outcome for each of the 11 possible rolls. “7” was a single, so there was a lot of offense. Then, when I was 11, we went to Detroit for a cousin’s bar mitzvah and I was introduced to the wonderland that is Toys R Us (it hadn’t moved into Canada yet). There, I found a tabletop baseball game called “Statis Pro” and went nuts with it. I did a full 162-game replay of the Blue Jays’ 1980 season (went 81-81, Dave Stieb had over 30 wins and Mike Willis threw 9 perfect innings of relief in a long extra-inning game).
Once that was done, my best friend in junior high introduced my to Strat-O-Matic and we had some great battles using teams from the early ’70s. Then, when I was 17, I walked into my local comic book store and saw a Pursue The Pennant display. It looked fantastic, so I bought it and loved it. I was blown away by the fact that there were 500 possible outcomes for both pitcher and hitter, that there were weather charts, that defenders were assessed ratings for both the ability to get to the ball AND the ability to field it cleanly once they did. It was sensational, an entirely different simulation baseball experience.
Great scoresheets, too. I still use them to this day – I have scored every Blue Jays game since 2002 on PTP scoresheets in the broadcast booth.
Mike Wilner; I like how easy the game is to play. I mean, you have to get the hang of it, just like anything, but once you do, a nine-inning game can be played in less than half an hour, which is great. It seems to be the most accurate of all the sim games out there – at least it takes the most things into account and the 1,000 possible outcomes on each roll of the dice (plus variable plays involving charts to which the results take you) blows everybody else away. The gameplay is second nature to me now, having been playing DLB for two decades, but I still think it’s pretty intuitive. The results make a lot of sense, baseballically, which makes it really easy to pick up.
Oh, the online version? Oops. It handles the charts for you, which speeds things up a little, and the ability to always still be able to look at the cards means that nothing is taken away from the strategical component. It, too, is quick and easy.
Q: DYNASTY League Baseball Online is the first and only real time Baseball
simulation that allows you to play and manage your series live as well as
the option to have the computer manager profile play the series for you.
What are your thoughts on how well the real time experience works and the
Mike Wilner: I really enjoyed it when I got the chance to take part in the media Greatest Teams League last year. It’s quick and easy, and the chat function with your opponent doesn’t get in the way of playing the game. I will always prefer the face-to-face experience, for sure, but when circumstances prevent people from getting together in person, the online version is a great substitute.
Q: Pursue the Pennant and DYNASTY League Baseball have always been known for
their high level of realism incorporating many subtle nuances of Baseball
that Bill James first popularized in his Baseball Abstracts. What realistic
aspects of DYNASTY League Baseball separate it from other Baseball
Mike Wilner: There’s just so much extra stuff. Separating range and fielding was big, I thought, weather and ballpark charts, intangibles ratings, the two things that go into a pitcher’s hold rating, so many things you can’t find anywhere else. Even which umpires have a temper and which don’t.
Q: I’ve had several Broadcast, Media and Front Office MLB people tell me
that they learned a tremendous amount about Baseball and each player¹s
strengths and weaknesses from playing both Pursue the Pennant and DYNASTY
League Baseball. Have you had a similar experience and what have you
Mike Wilner: Oh, absolutely. There are a lot of fallacies revealed by the defensive ratings on DLB. Thanks to the game, I know which outfielders have a good arm and which are poor throwers, what kind of speed people have, what kind of defense they play, who should be platooned and who shouldn’t, all those things. The offensive stuff is more important, because it seems to be far less subjective than the defense (and I often disagree with some of the defensive ratings given to some Blue Jays, who I watch 162 times every year), but at the very least I’m pointed in the right way. Most importantly, DLB lets me study every player in the big leagues, so I can find out a lot about players I may only see once or twice in a season.
Q: You are the Commissioner of THROW, a draft league that plays most of its
games locally in the Toronto area. Tell us about the league, its players
and the appeal of playing friends and co-workers face to face with the Board
Mike Wilner: The league was founded way back in 1987, with just four teams. We each took a stock team (I had the Blue Jays and there were also the Expos, Mets and Pirates) and then drafted three players each from the rest of the set. I remember drafting Steve Sax, but I can’t remember my other two (Fernando Valenzuela rings a bell). Back then we were very liberal with the rules, figuring that just because a big-league manager didn’t, say, start Mark Eichhorn, didn’t mean that I couldn’t if I felt he’d help me more in that role. I wound up losing the championship in a seven-game series.
The next year, we expanded to 8, then later to 16 and to 24, collapsed back to 20 but got back up to 24 by the mid-’90s and that’s where we have been ever since. I have won the whole shebang seven times, no one else has more than two titles.
We reset the league at some point in the early 90s, allowing each team to keep six players (I kept Mussina, Thomas, Bonds, Ben McDonald and two other guys I can’t remember) and redrafting from there, introducing a contract system, financials and a rookie draft. I handed one of the other owners a sealed envelope that contained a list of the 24 players I planned on drafting and wound up getting 23 of them. I would have had all 24, but Don Mattingly was still available in the 10th round, so I grabbed him instead of Lonnie Smith.
Many of the owners in the league have been around for two decades or more, and we’ve seen each other through college graduations and first jobs, marriages, children, divorces, all facets of life. I can’t wait until our first second-generation THROW owner enters the league. I’m the only one of the original four still remaining, and I was in high school when we started this thing – who would have ever imagined that I’d wind up being a big-league play-by-play broadcaster? We have people from all walks of life – a few others who work in sports, a comic-book writer, a teacher, a claims adjuster, a squash pro. One of our former owners got a PhD from Harvard, another moved to Malaysia, another publishes a magazine on film and has made a movie that played in some major film festivals around the world. it’s really been an interesting group.
We still all play the board game, not the online version, and if we can’t get together in person we do it over Skype with an online dice roller. I try to get as many of my games in as possible face-to-face. I find it’s much more fun to sit down with someone, feel the dice in your hands and hear my kids ask me if one of the nerds is coming over.
If you have been following this blog you have read some of the previous posts on how the defensive range ratings are determined for DYNASTY League Baseball and it’s predecessor Pursue the Pennant. Defensive range, Throwing arms and Catchers handling of pitchers are some of the player ratings that are done manually and require an interpretation of the defensive metrics to assign the rating. So let’s look at a few examples from the 2013 season player cards: Adam Jones on the DYNASTY League Baseball historical scales for both Range Factor/9 innings and John Dewan Fielding Bible plus/minus scales out at D/D and his UZR also was below average. There is a strong correlation among the defensive metrics to assign Jones a D range rating if you took a strict Sabermetric camp approach. NOTE: the DYNASTY League Baseball historical scale for plus/minus is based on data since 2000. What about the eye test from scouting reports? Gold Glove voters decided Jones was good enough all around defensively to be awarded a Gold Glove. Keep in mind that Defensive Range is not the only component of a Gold Glove vote, there is also Fielding Percentage and Throwing Arm. DYNASTY League Baseball uses scouting reports from a number of sources including charting MLB Networks 100 best defensive plays of 2013. One of the better sources of scouting reports is the Tango Tiger poll which grades tools on a scale from 0-100. Jones scored a “45” for his reactions and instincts, “65” Acceleration first few steps, “72” Velocity sprint speed, and “52” Hands catching. This was one of the tougher ratings of the 2013 season to assign, but in keeping with the balanced approach I take between Sabermetrics and Scouting evaluations where each group of data and observations should be taken into consideration I bumped Jones rating to a C+ given the above average ratings from the Tango Tiger poll. The MLB Managers and Coaches that vote on the Gold Glove take quite a bit of criticism for some of their selections, but I think it might be too extreme to totally discount their observations. In the end, I felt the Sabermetric defensive metrics and Gold Glove voters were at opposites ends of a very polarized view of Adam Jones range rating and that Adam Jones “real” range lies closer to the mid ground that the Tango Tiger poll ratings reflect. Jones throwing arm rating was much easier to assign with a very good Hold % and Kill% (6 kills total) metrics and Tango Tiger poll ratings for strength “77” and accuracy “58”. Adam Jones 2013: C+ Range/90 Error/-1 Throwing. NOTE: If you are new to DYNASTY League Baseball Throwing ratings are based on a scale of -4 to +4 with a -4 rating representing a “Clemente” type arm. The Official DYNASTY League Baseball rulebook details the rating scales on page 3 and can be found once you log in at http://www.dynastylea guebaseball.com/UserMain.aspx Emerging on the defensive spectrum of stars in 2013 were three young players of note: Andrelton Simmons age 24 (A+/85/-5), Nolan Arenado age 23 (A+/90) and Manny Machado age 21 (A+/90). It is rare air for three young players to receive “A+” range ratings which are reserved for historically great performances, but in all three cases they were well deserved. Arenado (+27), Machado (+36) and Simmons (+37) turned in historically great performances on the DYNASTY League Baseball Fielding Bible +/- scale. Not only that, but with their great range they also have terrific fielding percentages and had 85, 90 and 90 Error ratings. Frequently you see young players with excellent range, but many times it comes with a lower fielding percentage – not the case with these three defensive stars.Z Then there is the flip side. Who were some of the players with the poorest range? How about Jed Lowrie (ss: D/50)? Lowrie had a +/- of (-17), UZR/150 (-9.2) and RF/9 (3.56). A stunningly poor performance with all three defensive metrics in strong agreement. What about the scouting reports? Tango Tiger had Lowrie with ratings of 35/27/38. This is the kind of agreement between the defensive metrics and scouting reports that you love to see. Then there is Shin Soo Choo (cf: D/80/0). Choo finished last among regular CF with a (-16) plus/minus AND UZR/150 (-17.0) to go along with a 2.41 RF/9 that just barely made it into the “C” DYNASTY League Baseball historical range factor scale. The scouting reports from Tango Tiger were in agreement with the defensive metrics (33/40/54). The Molina brothers, Yadier and Jose, were once again among the best “pitch framing” catchers scoring RAA (Runs Above Average) of 19.8 and 19.3 respectively. Those scores were two of the top pitch framing scores in all of MLB earning both Yadier and Jose “A” ratings for catcher handling of pitchers. Here are the average Range and Fielding ratings by position for the 2013 season: Since range is text, the following numbers were assigned: A+ 1 A 2 B+ 3 B 4 C+ 5 C 6 D 7 F 8 Range Error 1B 5.45 72.29 2B 5.12 71.90 SS 5.04 71.27 3B 4.98 70.64 LF 5.20 70.25 CF 4.26 76.34 RF 4.70 68.38 DYNASTY League Baseball Online allows you to play in Private Draft leagues as well as play solitaire “Series”. The DYNASTY League Baseball original Board Game version and new 2013 season player cards are available at the Ticket Window.
During spring training this year I had a chance to meet with Milwaukee Brewers Bob McClure and Paul Molitor and reminisce about Pursue the Pennant and it’s succesor DYNASTY League Baseball . My visits with “Mac” and “Molly” reminded me of another meeting I had with Brewer manager Tom Trebelhorn in May of 1987 in which I played Pursue the Pennant with “Treb” in his managerial office in Milwaukee County Stadium:
After getting off to a scorching 20 and 3 start, the Milwaukee Brewers were languishing in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. Some of the hometown faithful seemed to have already soured on rookie manager Tom Trebelhorn, or so it appeared as I entered his office in County Stadium.
“Where do we file letters like this?” queried Trebelhorn as he handed a letter to Public Relations Director Tom Skibosh. I read the hand-written letter alongside of Skibosh. At the top of the page, Trebelhorn had written the words, “STAY POSITIVE” The writer began by saying that the 13-0 streak was the worst thing that could have happened to the Brewers because now they would be “stuck with this miserable manager (Trebelhorn).” The letter contained such compliments as “you stink” and “I can’t wait till (sic) they get rid of you.”
I guess that’s what you get for piloting the Brewers to the best record in baseball after most people picked the team to finish no higher than sixth.
I first met Treblehorn at the annual Diamond Dinner held each January by the Brewers. It’s hard not to like the man. Words like “thoughtful”, “organized” and “down-to-earth” come to mind when describing him. In many ways, he reminds you of a favorite teacher you once had. By now, you probably know that is exactly what Trebelhorn is in the off-season…a school teacher in Oregon.
Despite the long losing streak, on this day as on all others, the rookie skipper was upbeat and positive. When I told him that the name of the game that we were about to play was called Pursue the Pennant, he replied “That’s what we’ll be doing this year.” Based on what had transpired in the first thirteen games of the season, he wasn’t kidding. Lately well….
Like many of the “new breed” of managers, Trebelhorn is aware of the numbers which are necessary to make sound baseball decisions. He combed with delight the Project Scoresheet data I had along on opposition stolen bases vs. pitchers and catchers.
As a field general, Trebelhorn is aggressive. His teams will steal bases. The Brewers are 2nd in stolen bases compared to a dismal 9th last year under George Bamberger’s reign. The hit and run play is often employed to stay out of the double play. Baserunners are more aggressive, going from first to third on singles, stretching base hits, forcing the other team in to making mistakes. Of course, the more chances you take, the more likely things are to backfire, but more often than not in 1987, Trebelhorn had been pushing the right buttons.
Meanwhile, Skibosh was still musing over the letter, describing the author in terms not to be repeated in a family publication such as this. Seemingly undaunted, Trebelhorn took up position behind his desk. He would manage the Brewers and I would manaage the Oakland Athletics in a “preview” of that night’s major league game. It would be Mike Birkbeck vs. Dave Stewart.
We each began to construct our lineups for the game. There were no Pursue the Pennant cards for B.J. Surhoff or Terry Steinbach (although there will be in the upcoming rookie card set), but otherwise, we had all the key players from both teams. As I was making out my lineup, I mentioned to Trebelhorn that the A’s seemed to be weak against pitching. He nodded in agreement.
I briefly explained how to play, and Trebelhorn rolled the dice for Birkbeck as Alfredo Griffin stepped in. He drew a walk, and Carney Lansford followed with a single to center. No outs, men on 1st and 2nd, and Davis, Canseco, Jackson and McGwire due up. I began to think that it looked like things were going just as they had on the current losing streak. My competitive fire took a back seat to secret longing that the Brewers would get out of it. After all, it’s bad enough that Treblehorn’s crew had been getting their brains beaten out in real life, without someone unloading on them in a baseball table-top game.
Birkbeck got out of it, but not without a scare. Davis flied to right, Canseco struck out, but Jackson walked to load the bases before McGwire stuck out.
Both teams went quietly until the bottom on the 2nd. With one out, Deer singled, Cooper walked, and Schroeder reached on an error to load the bases. With Gantner at bat, I explained that the squeeze play is also an option in PTP. Trebelhorn elected to swing away, and Gantner hit into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning. Wrong button.
In the bottom of the 3rd, the Brewers got something going again. Sveum led off with a walk. Molitor struck out. Yount flew out deep to left. Braggs singled to center, Sveum to 2nd. Greg Brock then pounded the next offering over the wall in left-center field. Calm, cool, and collected Trebelhorn noted “Brock will do that”.
After Deer struck out to end the inning, Trebelhorn notified our Pursue the Pennant umpire (Andy Etchebarren, a Brewer coach) that he had to get back to work, and that the fourth would have to be our last inning. What a great managerial ploy if it could be worked into the Pursue the Pennant rule book. – RULE 7.03 The home team manager may call the game at anytime if he has to go back to work.
The Athletics loaded the bases with two out, but Birkbeck got Tony Phillips to fly out to Deer to end the game. I hoped that Brock would repeat his feat that night, but he didn’t, and the Brewers troubles continued as they lost their seventh straight game.
After our game was over, Trebelhorn commented that he was impressed with Pursue the Pennant. “I saw some interesting things here, especially with all the information on the player cards, ” he said. He then inquired about the price, commentiing that it would be fun for him and his son, an avid board game enthusiast.
Milwaukee Brewer fans can only hope that manager Tom Trebelhorn can find enough interesting things to get his team turned around and continue their pursuit of the pennant.
The new DYNASTY League Baseball 2011 season player card set with Brewers Ryan Braun, Zack Greinke, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, John Axford, Yovanni Gallardo, Corey Hart and Francisco Rodriguez is available at the Ticket Window store and also at DYNASTY League Baseball Online.