Results tagged ‘ Defensive statistics ’

The case of the missing Scouting Report player ratings in today’s analytic Baseball world


If you’ve read the annual THE SCOUTING REPORT or THE SCOUTING NOTEBOOK that Harper & Row, STATS Inc., and The Sporting News published from 1983-2006 you know just how in-depth the scouting reports were that evaluated player “tools”.

THE SCOUTING NOTEBOOK

Unfortunately those publications are no longer published and while Baseball Prospectus is a great read, it doesn’t completely replace the detailed scouting reports that THE SCOUTING REPORT and THE SCOUTING NOTEBOOK provided.  Yes, we have stats and lots of them.  Baseball statistics have never been as accessbile as they are now.   It was a totally different Baseball world in 1982 when the first Bill James Baseball Abstract was published for national distribution and the Elias Sports Bureau tried to claim Baseball statistics as it’s own private domain.

There never has been a Baseball publication that provided player ratings like the incredible Rick Barry Pro Basketball Scouting Report, but perhaps DYNASTY League Baseball is the closest thing to it for Baseball in terms of providing Major League Baseball player rating grades.

A tremendous amount of effort goes into the creation of the DYNASTY League Baseball season player ratings to give you the best possible replication of a players strengths and weaknesses.   I’ve been rating and grading players for 27 years for not only each season player card set for Pursue the Pennant and DYNASTY League Baseball since the 1984 season, but also several past seasons including 1957, 1967, 1970-1974, 1982 and three Greatest Teams sets from 1906-1988.   That’s about 35, 000 different players and when you multiply that times about a dozen or so player ratings per player that comes to almost 500,000 individual player ratings.  OK, Dan Treuden has been helping rate the pitchers for quite a few years, but still that is a lot of players and player ratings to evaluate!

You can now find almost of these player ratings easily accesible at: DYNASTYLeagueBaseball.com

Most player ratings are based on a 1-10 scale or A-F including A+, B+ and C+ (Error ratings go from 5-100) to give you a broad spectrum of ratings and precise statistical accuracy using historical scales.  The player ratings are derived from thoroughly researched and tested formulas and computer calculations. 

In some cases though, you simply can’t devise a formula that will take all factors into account.  Defensive Range ratings are a good example.  If you only used a players zone rating (UZR), you would come up with many misleading ratings simply because this defensive metric doesn’t account for variables such as the vagaries of the scorer’s zone judgement, the adjacent fielder, how hard the ball is hit, size of the outfield and defensive shifts.  There isn’t any single defensive metric that is reliable enough to be used alone to assign defensive range ratings.  That’s why it is important to look at more than one defensive metric and use “old school” scouting reports as a cross check.  In the case of DYNASTY League Baseball, the primary defensive metrics used are Bill James Range factor, John Dewan’s Baseball Bible plus minus and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

It’s this kind of effort combined with the foremost knowledge and insight into the game that makes DYNASTY League Baseball’s player ratings the most realistic of any baseball simulation.

Greatest Regular Season Day in MLB History? | Preview of the new 2011 season player cards


Rays react after Dan Johnson 2 out 9th inning HR caps 7 run comeback

September 28, 2011 arguably goes down in MLB history as the Greatest single day in regular season history with a finish so unlikely and so dramatic it seemed it was scripted from the writers of “24″.

Dan Johnson’s 2-out, 2-strike Home Run in the bottom of the 9th that capped off a seven run comeback vs. the Yankees and saved the season for the Rays.  For Johnson’s heroics he earned a Clutch hitting situation rating on his new 2011 season DYNASTY League Baseball player card.  It is very unusual for a non-RBI leader to earn a Clutch hitting rating, but it has happened before with Al Weis 1969 Mets, Tom Lawless 1987 Cardinals and Manny Mota’s 1977 Dodgers player cards.

The Tigers Victor Martinez epitomized Clutch hitting by raking at a  .375 clip with RSP/2 outs and .394 with RSP along with Miguel Cabrera (.382/724, .388/.673).

The AL East perennial powers Boston and New York both failed to earn a JAM situation rating for their relief aces Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera.  Papelbon lost his chance for a JAM with an unimpressive .273 BA with RSP/2 out.  Rivera was not only mediocre with a .261 BA/.435 SLG with RSP/2 out, but got rocked with RSP at a .326 BA/.488 SLG clip.

DYNASTY League Baseball fans Dave Kerpen and Andrew Kaufmann debated the merits of the Mets R.A. Dickey chance for a JAM rating in the 2011 season player card set.  What it came down to is that even though Dickey won only 8 games he was a candidate for a JAM rating because he was amongst the Official ERA leaders with his 3.28 ERA.  Dickey earned his JAM rating on the basis of a .184 BA/.241 SLG with RSP/2 out.

The poster boy for a JAM rating is Tim Lincecum who dialed it up with RSP/2 out allowing a .115 BA/.177 SLG.  Now THAT is a pitcher who can get out of a jam!

Carp JAM rating?  This year a resounding YES for Cardinal Ace Chris Carpenter.

How could he not after besting Phillie Ace Roy Halladay in a Game 5 NLDS 1-0 duel of aces to end all pitching duels?  A .236 BA with RSP/2 outs during the regular season helps too.

Chris Carpenter celebrated after his duel with Halladay in Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS

Beer in the bullpen?  The Red Sox cleaned house after the season becaue the clubhouse chemistry had gone awry.  The starting rotation of Beckett, Bucholz, Lackey and Lester all got slapped with a D intangible rating for their Boston beer party.

Mark Buehrle staked his claim on this generation’s version of Jim Kaat with an A+ Range rating and 90 Error rating.  Buehrle ranked #1 in the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus leaderboard for pitchers with a +4 score to his right, +2 in the middle and 9 runs saved.

Troy Tulowitzki (A/100/-5) earned an A Range rating  on the basis of his excellent  5.05 Range Factor (1st) and his solid Fielding Bible +10 score.  Error 100 ratings are historically rare and Tulowitzki’s .991 Fielding pct. got him the top historical rating on the scale.  Tulo’s player card is a true gem topped off by his -5 Double Play pivot rating which was earned on the basis of his #1 ranked DP pct. of .681.

In the AL, Brendan Ryan (A/70/-5) ranked 1st in the shortstop Fielding Bible rankings for the second year in a row with a +22 Plus/Minus.

It’s rare that a rookie would debut with an A range rating, but that is exactly what the Angel’s Mark Trumbo (A/70)  did ranking 1st in Fielding Bible Plus/Minus (+11).

Washington’s Rick Ankiel continues to not just impress, but to put himself in the pantheon next to Clemente in terms of throwing arms.  Ankiel’s 7 “kills” and 9 runs saved ranked him 1st among all CF.  MLB scouts also graded Ankiel’s arm an 8 on their 2-8 scale.   Ankiel (B+/90/-4) earned a very rare -4 throwing arm rating in 2011 in both CF and RF.

Atlanta’s Michael Bourn continues to be as menacing as Jason Bourne – only Michael does his killing on the basepaths.  Bourn scores a 10 Baserunning rating and top tier lead (7/6/2) and steal (8/7/1) ratings at 2nd/3rd/Home.

The new DYNASTY League Baseball 2011 season player card set is available for DYNASTY League Baseball Online right here right now and available in the original Board version format at the Ticket Window.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,227 other followers

%d bloggers like this: